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Get on the band wagon and place your bets

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by Neil Dix
June 2006
2006 World Cup logo

2006 World Cup logo

Neil Dix admits, he was never a big soccer fan, but after fluking tickets to Australia's qualifying win against Uruguay, and then fluking tickets to games in Germany, it's fair to say he's jumped on the World Cup bandwagon.

In my new position as a self-pronounced expert, jumping on the World Cup bandwagon is the least I could do to help everyone else about to be hit by 'football fever'. So with my SportsTab account loaded up, here's my punter's guide to the 2006 World Cup.

Australia's Chances
We're back. But after being placed in a group with defending champions Brazil, 2002 hosts Japan and '98 semi-finalists Croatia, the Socceroos may be destined for a repeat of 1974, with a first-round exit.

Our first match with Japan shapes as the crucial contest. If Australia can defeat the Asian champs in the first game, a draw against Brazil or Croatia could see us advance.

With two of Croatia's squad born and raised in Australia, the final group match could produce fireworks, especially if there's a second-round spot on the line.

The Favorites
Moving away from Brazil, hosts Germany seem the major threat, if they can handle the massive hometown pressure. Perennial underachievers Spain, at 16/1, should be competitive in the later stages with a relatively easy first-round group. England is, as always, desperate for their first Cup success since 1966. However, unless England and Germany top their respective groups, a second-round contest looms as the competition's most mouth-watering contest, eliminating a perennial favorite in the first half of the competition.

The Underdogs
In one of the weakest groups, Ukraine could pose problems in later rounds if AC Milan star Andriy Shevchenko fires. Mexico is the world's most under-rated team, and after a promising performance at the Confederations Cup could provide a boil over in the second round.

The Pretenders
The USA clearly top this list. With an exaggerated world ranking of 4, American hopes are high. But in a group with powerhouses Italy, the Czech Republic and also Ghana, they could struggle to advance past the group stages. Italy themselves are under huge pressure, with a wide-ranging investigation into match fixing by highly-ranked officials in their national league. The Netherlands, like the US, will find it difficult to live up to their FIFA ranking, matched against Argentina, Serbia & Montenegro and the Ivory Coast. After missing qualification for the 2002 Cup, their inexperienced squad could falter under the pressure of the competition's early stages.

Players To Watch
With betting options on the Golden Boot for the tournaments leading scorer, strikers seem of most interest in this category. Dominant teams in easier groups seem a good place to start, as not only is there a chance of first-round blowouts but also the potential to play the most matches. Shevchenko at 20/1 seems good value, as does the 12/1 about prolific French striker Thierry Henry. Mexico's Jared Borghetti, at 50/1, could be a smoky if the Mexicans can advance beyond the second-round. Socceroo's captain Mark Viduka is at 80/1.

Even more confused? Apparently that's the beauty of the World Cup. There'll be beatings, boilovers, history and heartbreak. My advice? It's likely you'll lose your money anyway, so back the Socceroos and give yourself another reason to jump on the bandwagon.

Sydney Observer, August 2006

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