Nelson's defence

For the 13 of the past 14 defence ministers the promotion was their very last. Will Brendan Nelson survive the curse?

Dr Brendan Nelson on the attack

Having delivered the Prime Minister radical reform in higher education, Bradfield's local member, Dr Brendan Nelson, has been rewarded with the task of Defence Minister.

The reshuffle puts the once earring-wearing, former Labor party aspirant and member of Ullyses Motorcycle Club squarely in the spotlight as a possible leadership contender, come John Howard's imminent departure. Despite the significance of the portfolio, many claim the new role should be considered something of a poisoned chalice.

A mammoth task confronts Dr Nelson. Not since the Vietnam War have Australia's defence forces been committed to such a wide range of overseas operations. Funding, recruitment and defence accounting problems are just some of the challenges he will have to face.

The Defence Force is widely regarded as the most cumbersome bureaucracy.

It is Australia's largest landowner, second largest employer and has an annual budget of $17 billion.

Dr Nelson is not altogether inexperienced in the portfolio and was parliamentary secretary to the former defence minister Peter Reith for 10 months in 2001.

Dr Nelson has held the seat of Bradfield since 1996 and was elected to Cabinet as Minister for Education, Science and Training at the end of 2001. At the age of 35 he became the youngest doctor ever elected to the Federal Presidency of the Australian Medical Association (AMA).

"Brendan is a details man," said the Prime Minister, "Defence is a very challenging, detail-driven portfolio ... it's a huge job and we want somebody who will burn the midnight oil."

According to Dr Nelson, what needs to be done is "ensuring orderly administration of the Department of Defence and seeing that Australia can continue to play its role in shaping events in our region and our world."

Dr Nelson's appointment comes at a time when many have criticised the government for not having a clear strategic view on whether it wants the Australian Defence Force to serve a regional role or a more global function.

The Prime Minister has signalled that the Defence budget is set to rise again this year. The cost of deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan, complex new ship and jet fighter projects, and escalating personnel costs have put financial strain on Defence.

The topic of compulsory national service will require Dr Nelson's careful negotiation skills. The idea has been raised by former chief of the Defence Force, Admiral Chris Barrie.

"We ought to begin to think how and when Australia should shift to a universal national service structure to obtain young people for our armed forces," said Admiral Barrie.

Dr Nelson dismissed the idea.

"The Australian Government has no intention at all of re-introducing conscription into Australia."

But if it's leadership aspirations that Dr Nelson is harbouring, then acquisition of the Defence portfolio does not bode well. Most media commentators agree that his new role is a potential political wasteland for anyone with their eye on the top job. 

Laura Tingle, Chief political correspondent for The Australian Financial Review said "If you look at Brendan Nelson as a leadership contender in the longer term, I don't know if this necessarily helps him. It gives him a great deal of seniority but Defence is a very hard ask."

For 13 of the past 14 defence ministers, defence was the last ministerial job they held. The one exception is Kim Beazley, and he's hardly had a glorious ride.

"If history is any guide, minister of defence is not a job you would want, if you have your eyes on a bright future in politics," said Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University, Hugh White. "The precedents are very discouraging,"

Having made his imprint on higher education, no doubt Dr Nelson is set to leave it on defence. Watch this space.